• Ellson Consulting, LLC

    Providing Expertise in Residential Whole loans and RMBS

    Credit Analysis, Valuation, and Litigation/Expert Witness

  • Welcome

    At Ellson Consulting, LLC, we provide unique expertise and creative solutions for your organization. We specialize in residential whole loans and RMBS. Thank you for considering our services.

    History

    I have attached my resume’, but I will summarize it here. On the academic side I was a tenured professor at the University of South Carolina. I am currently a lecturer in the M. A. Financial Mathematics Program at North Carolina State University. In addition to the teaching position , I am on the Executive Board of the Financial Mathematics program.

     

    My Wall Street career began in 1987. My focus has been on residential whole loan mortgages and agency/non-agency mortgage-backed securities. Within this narrow range of fixed income products, I have extremely broad experience in research, trading/hedging, portfolio management, structured finance (domestic and foreign), and product development.

     

    My initial area was MBS research, and I ultimately became global head of MBS/ABS research at two major investment banks. I held two senior trading positions, whole loans and securities, and managed portfolios exceeding $90 billion.

     

    During the financial melt-down, I was the credit trader for a small hedge fund. I am well familiar with the causes of the crisis and the outcomes and regulations that it engendered. On a consulting basis I did OTTI, fair value, and credit loss analysis for banks, insurance companies, credit unions, and FHLBs. I became involved in litigation, representing the SEC on CDO-related litigation as an expert witness (SEC v. Harding/Wing Chau), and I was the expert witness in a FINRA arbitration.

     

    In my last full time position I was the product manager for a whole loan analytical platform at Andrew Davidson & Company, LoanKinetics. This product provides comprehensive credit analysis and unique valuation metrics. It was used by clients for loan loss/ALLL determination and CCAR/DFAST stress testing as mandated by the Fed and the NCUA (credit unions). I retired from ADCo in December 2015 and founded my company in 2016.

     

    As an independent consultant, I have been active in potential/actual litigation. In 2016, I had three mandates responding to SEC/FINRA inquiries. In 2017 I was involved in two major cases. The first was as a testifying expert witness in the US District Court of CT v. Shapiro et al (Nomura Traders, representing Tyler Peters). The second was Trustees v. Lehman Estate in the US Bankruptcy Court in New York. My role was focused on estimating the market value of over 15,000 residential mortgage loans originated in the 2002-8 period. I prepared reports, rebuttals, and was deposed. In January 2018, I testified at the trial as a testifying expert witness.

     

    Please review my services. I have access to sophisticated credit and valuation models for both loans and securities. I look forward to hearing from you.

     

    Richard W. Ellson, Ph. D

     

     

  • Residential Whole Loan Analysis

     

    PROBLEMS & SOLUTIONS

    Credit Analysis Required for ALLL and CCAR/DFAST

    Comprehensive Credit Analysis and Expected Loss Determination

    • Base Case Either Model or User Defined
    • Multiple Scenarios
    • Probability Weighted Losses and Tail Risk
    • Loan Loss Attribution
    • Stochastic (ALLL) and vector (CCAR/DFAST) housing prices and interest rates
    • Incorporates Model Error in Addition to Positive/Adverse Economic Scenarios
    • Ordinal Ranking of All Loans to Identify High Risk Loans (Servicing)

    Mark-to-Market Valuation for Trading & ALLL/Reserves

    • Market Implied COAS Pricing Using Benchmark COAS
    • Single COAS Valuation
    • Static Spread Pricing
    • Duration and Related Metrics

    Litigation

    • RMBS trading practices
    • Legacy loan valuation
    • Legacy RMBS analysis
  • Non-Agency RMBS and Credit Risk Transfer Transactions (STACR and CAS)

    Key Focus in the current MBS environment

    Credit Analysis

    • Projected defaults by period
    • Projected principal write-downs and interest shortfalls by period
    • Comprehensive cash-flows by scenario, available at loan and/'or aggregated level
    • Base Case Expected Losses for OTTI
    • 90 and 180 Day Aggregates

    Valuation

    • Option Adjusted Spreads
    • Credit OAS
    • Key Metrics
      • OAS Duration and Convexity
      • Spread Duration

    Quantitative Risk Measures for Non-Agency RMBS and CRT Bonds and Collateral

    • Ordinal Ranking for Loans
      • Probability Weighted Loss
      • Tail Risk
    • Ordinal Ranking for Non-Agency RMBS and CRT Bonds Includes Above Plus
      • Bond "Thickness"
      • Break Points of Security Relative to Collateral
  • Contact

    ellcon2016@outlook.com

    Email me

    Find me on LinkedIn

  • Resume